Moody's Investors Service on Friday projected India's growth at zero per cent for the current fiscal and said the negative outlook on sovereign rating reflects increasing risks that GDP growth will remain significantly lower than in the past. The outlook also partly shows weaker policy effectiveness to address economic and institutional issues, it noted in the update to its November 2019 rating forecast.
A NITI Aayog report indicates that India's digital public infrastructure (DPI) initiatives could contribute 4 per cent of the GDP by 2030, a significant increase from the current 1 per cent.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
India's trade deficit reached a six-month high of $31.98 billion in July, driven by a sharp increase in imports, particularly crude oil, electronic goods, coal, and fertilisers. Both merchandise exports and imports recorded their second-highest levels during the same period.
The Indian economy grew by 4.5 per cent in the October-December period of the current financial year, pulled down by poor performance of farm, manufacturing and mining sectors.
'The real money in India over the coming period is likely to be made in small-cap stocks rather than in the large-cap benchmark names.'
The PMEAC has revised economic growth rate upward to 7.1% for FY'12, up from 6.9% projected in advanced estimates.
'After that the burdens of an ageing population will be upon us, and the share of working age population will shrink.'
The World Bank has affirmed India's strong position to withstand the current global energy shock, citing high foreign exchange reserves, fiscal space, and low inflation as key buffers supporting continued growth despite international headwinds.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged in the August monetary policy review, with economists citing elevated inflation risks and the pending closure of the FCNR(B) deposit scheme as key factors. Most anticipate a 'Neutral' policy stance but with a hawkish tone due to geopolitical tensions, high crude oil prices, and an uneven monsoon.
A working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) reveals a continuous decline in the rate at which foreign-owned firms invest in fixed assets in India since the FY20 peak, contrasting with a steady increase from Indian business groups.
Deloitte on Thursday projected economic growth at 6.5-6.7 per cent for the current fiscal, as tax incentives provided in the Budget are expected to push domestic demand amid an uncertain global trade environment. Deloitte estimated India's GDP growth at 6.3-6.5 per cent for FY25 and said that the economic outlook for FY26 hinges on a delicate balance between evolving trade relations and government efforts to boost domestic consumer demand.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its key policy rates for the fourth consecutive time, keeping the repo rate at 5.25 per cent, while the benchmark BSE Sensex closed 152 points higher in a volatile session, recovering from an intraday dip.
Sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals and automobiles can see supply disruptions in value chain, which may lead to a derailment of the domestic economic growth.
'Why not aspire for 8 or 9 or even 10 per cent?'
'The main problem the country faces is not low GDP growth, but low employment growth.'
Further, the agency said it expects signs of a pick-up to emerge in the second half of the year.
India's gross domestic product product (GDP) growth rate between 2011-12 and 2016-17 should be about 4.5 per cent instead of the official estimate of close to 7 per cent, he said in a research paper published at Harvard University. "The Indian policy automobile has been navigated with a faulty, possibly broken, speedometer," he says in the paper.
Economic think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research expects India's Gross Domestic Product growth to decelerate to 8.3 per cent during current fiscal
Moody's Investors Services on Tuesday gave a speculative grade rating to India's domestic-currency debt on account of the government's heavy borrowings, while doubting sustainability of nine per cent GDP growth.
Moody's Ratings has downgraded India's growth forecast for financial year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent, attributing the revision to weaker consumption and industrial activity, elevated energy prices, and rising input costs stemming from the West Asia conflict.
With all-round upturn in economic cycle except in agriculture, Economic think tank NCAER has forecast India's GDP growth rate at 6.5 to 6.7 per cent for this fiscal.
IMF projected India's economic growth at 4.25% in 2013-14.
The country's chief statistician T C A Anant on Wednesday said high global crude prices could impact India's economic growth in 2011-12 and projected that the GDP is likely to grow by around 8.5 per cent during the fiscal.
The SBI report, however, said the economic growth rate will pick up pace in 2020-21 to 6.2 per cent.
Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said only farm revolution can make it possible. He also stressed on scrapping Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee and some old laws like Essential Commodites Act, which restrict movement of farm produces.
India's real GDP growth will decline marginally to 6.3 per cent in 2024 from the 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023, an American brokerage firm said on Monday. The next calendar year will be of two halves, wherein the government spending before the upcoming General Elections will be the key driver for growth, while after the elections, it will be the re-acceleration in investment growth, especially from the private sector, Goldman Sachs said in a report. From a fiscal year perspective, the brokerage said it expects growth to accelerate to 6.5 per cent for FY25 from the 6.2 per cent it has projected for the ongoing FY24, it added.
Following the Supreme Court's clean chit in the coal block allocation case, Congress leader Sonia Gandhi has lauded former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's integrity and accountability, drawing a sharp contrast with the Narendra Modi government's operational style and alleged misuse of investigative agencies.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday slashed India's GDP growth projection for FY23 to 7 per cent, saying the economy is expected to slow against the backdrop of global economy, elevated inflation and high interest rate. In June, it had forecast 7.8 per cent growth for India. "We expect the economy to slow given the global economic backdrop, elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy. "We now expect the economy to grow 7 per cent in the financial year to end-March 2023 (FY23) from 7.8 per cent previously, with FY24 also slowing to 6.7 per cent from 7.4 per cent before," Fitch said in its September edition of the Global Economic Outlook.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, saw early gains driven by lower crude oil prices and buying in Reliance Industries, even as the Reserve Bank of India maintained its benchmark policy rate for the fourth consecutive meeting, reinforcing confidence in the domestic economy.
The challenge thrown by the youth movement creates the opportunity for a more consequential debate on India's economic trajectory because it must remain centered on India's youth as its driving impulse, asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday marginally lowered the country's GDP growth projection for the current fiscal at 6.8 per cent from its earlier estimate of 7 per cent. However, despite the downward revision in the economic growth projection, India will remain among the fastest growing major economies in the world, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das while announcing the latest bi-monthly monetary policy.
Let's take a look at GDP growth around the world, including India.
The real gross domestic product growth is likely to touch 9 per cent in 2003-04 based on better than expected performance of the agriculture sector, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
Adani Properties has emerged as the largest value creator in the 2026 Grohe-Hurun India Real Estate 150, adding Rs 38,000 crore in valuation to become India's fourth-most valuable real estate company, with its valuation rising 72.5 per cent year-on-year to Rs 90,400 crore.
The consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation hitting an all-time low in October would encourage the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the policy repo rate in its upcoming December 3-5 meeting. However, the July-September GDP growth, expected to be above 7 per cent, may act as a deterrent.
Fitch Ratings on Friday said persistently higher oil prices could cause India's retail inflation to rise faster than the expected gradual pace, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in the first half of financial year 2026-27 (FY27).
The Indian stock market mythos of 36 years is wrapped in a diaphanous negligee, lashed together by a delicate, etheric sash of 1.6 bull markets. To make money from here on will require a ground invasion, trench by trench, rather than carpet bombing. Way more difficult, points out Shankar Sharma.
India's GDP growth is likely to moderate from 8.2 per cent in 2023 to 7 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025 because the pent-up demand accumulated during Covid has exhausted, as the economy reconnects with its potential, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. About the global economy, the IMF said the battle against inflation has largely been won, even though price pressures persist in some countries.
India's Central government is likely to see its fertiliser subsidy bill double to a record 3.4 trillion in FY27, up from the Budget estimate of 1.7 trillion, due to surging global fertiliser prices exacerbated by the West Asia war. This significant increase, coupled with revenue losses from excise duty cuts for oil-marketing companies, is straining the government's fiscal space, though capital expenditure plans remain unchanged.
