Goldman Sachs has materially lowered its earnings growth forecast for Indian companies by a cumulative 9 percentage points over the next two years.
GVA growth in the manufacturing, farm and construction sectors tumbled.
India's services sector experienced its weakest growth in four-and-a-half years in July, as new business orders, both domestic and export, eased due to intense competition and declining demand. Despite a modest rebound in job creation and improved profit margins, overall business confidence slipped, reflecting a broader slowdown in the economy.
India's economic growth slowed to a 15-month low of 6.7 per cent in April-June 2024-25, mainly due to poor performance of the agriculture and services sectors, government data showed on Friday. The gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 8.2 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2022-23. India, however, remained the fastest-growing major economy, as China posted a 4.7 per cent growth in April-June 2024.
That means making it easier to invest, protecting investors through predictable rules, and avoiding policy reversals after investments have been made, notes Rajeswari Sengupta.
The Centre has spent 28 per cent of its FY27 capital expenditure budget of Rs 12.21 trillion in the first three months against around 24.5 per cent during the corresponding period a year ago.
However, the SBI report said it will take almost seven-quarters from Q4 FY21 to reach the pre-pandemic level in nominal terms and there will be a permanent output loss of around 9 per cent of GDP.
The Indian government is set to accelerate reforms, including measures to enhance foreign direct investment, speed up divestment, and boost asset monetisation, to maintain economic growth despite rising fuel and fertiliser import costs driven by the West Asia crisis.
India's manufacturing sector growth decelerated to a five-year low of 52.8 in August, down from 53.5 in July, as output and new orders moderated due to softer demand conditions, according to the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
Moody's Investors Service on Friday projected India's growth at zero per cent for the current fiscal and said the negative outlook on sovereign rating reflects increasing risks that GDP growth will remain significantly lower than in the past. The outlook also partly shows weaker policy effectiveness to address economic and institutional issues, it noted in the update to its November 2019 rating forecast.
India's total goods trade with BRICS nations more than doubled from FY21 to FY26, reaching USD 417.5 billion, but a significant surge in imports, particularly from China and Russia, has caused India's trade deficit with the bloc to more than triple, reaching USD 226.1 billion.
India's mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market is projected to maintain an annual run-rate of approximately $200 billion, evenly split between domestic, inbound, and outbound transactions, despite global geopolitical turbulence, according to Rajesh Singhi, global co-head, M&A Advisory, Standard Chartered Bank.
The Indian economy grew by 4.5 per cent in the October-December period of the current financial year, pulled down by poor performance of farm, manufacturing and mining sectors.
India's economic growth slowed to 7.4 per cent in the March quarter, bringing down the annual growth rate to 6.5 per cent during 2024-25, according to official data released on Friday. The growth in the January-March period was lower than the 8.4 per cent expansion in the year-ago quarter.
The PMEAC has revised economic growth rate upward to 7.1% for FY'12, up from 6.9% projected in advanced estimates.
India's economy is projected to maintain growth above 7 per cent in 2026-27 (FY27), supported by strong domestic consumption and investment, even as global growth faces risks from geopolitical tensions, according to industry body Assocham.
RBI Deputy Governor S C Murmu stated that the introduction of merchant discount rate (MDR) on UPI transactions is unlikely to cause a shift back to cash, despite some concerns, emphasising that MDR will help the payments ecosystem recover costs.
India's real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow at 7.5 per cent in FY26 and moderate to 7 per cent in the subsequent fiscal year, a domestic rating agency said on Wednesday.
India's services sector growth experienced a significant slowdown in June, reaching a 17-month low due to challenging market conditions and reduced domestic client interest, as indicated by the HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed marginally lower due to profit-taking, following the Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged while lowering its growth expectations for the current fiscal year and forecasting higher inflation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a new investment platform, based on the New Development Bank (NDB), to fund projects in trade, infrastructure, logistics, and technology across BRICS nations, emphasising that the grouping's expanding economic cooperation is not 'against anyone' but aims to advance members' national interests.
S Mahendra Dev, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, expressed confidence that the rupee would stabilise around the 92-93 level against the US dollar, despite geopolitical tensions, and that foreign investment flows would return.
Sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals and automobiles can see supply disruptions in value chain, which may lead to a derailment of the domestic economic growth.
'The Chinese military cannot advance much in Ladakh, even if they want to.' 'Similarly, in Arunachal Pradesh, they can rename a village or two, intrude here or there, but cannot do much more realistically.'
Further, the agency said it expects signs of a pick-up to emerge in the second half of the year.
India is hosting the BRICS summit, leveraging the platform to address global trade tensions and champion the developmental priorities of the Global South, including food, energy, and supply chain security. The summit, attended by leaders like President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, will focus on resilience, innovation, cooperation, and sustainability, with India aiming to strengthen intra-BRICS collaboration and discuss global matters. The expanded BRICS grouping represents a significant portion of the world's population and GDP, making its discussions crucial for global economic stability.
Deloitte on Thursday projected economic growth at 6.5-6.7 per cent for the current fiscal, as tax incentives provided in the Budget are expected to push domestic demand amid an uncertain global trade environment. Deloitte estimated India's GDP growth at 6.3-6.5 per cent for FY25 and said that the economic outlook for FY26 hinges on a delicate balance between evolving trade relations and government efforts to boost domestic consumer demand.
India's gross domestic product product (GDP) growth rate between 2011-12 and 2016-17 should be about 4.5 per cent instead of the official estimate of close to 7 per cent, he said in a research paper published at Harvard University. "The Indian policy automobile has been navigated with a faulty, possibly broken, speedometer," he says in the paper.
Economic think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research expects India's Gross Domestic Product growth to decelerate to 8.3 per cent during current fiscal
Moody's Investors Services on Tuesday gave a speculative grade rating to India's domestic-currency debt on account of the government's heavy borrowings, while doubting sustainability of nine per cent GDP growth.
A NITI Aayog report indicates that India's digital public infrastructure (DPI) initiatives could contribute 4 per cent of the GDP by 2030, a significant increase from the current 1 per cent.
India's exports of printed circuit boards (PCBs) to China dramatically increased over 40-fold to $1.5 billion in FY26, indicating a significant shift where China is increasingly importing simpler electronic assemblies from India as it focuses on higher-value manufacturing domestically.
With all-round upturn in economic cycle except in agriculture, Economic think tank NCAER has forecast India's GDP growth rate at 6.5 to 6.7 per cent for this fiscal.
Reserve Bank Deputy Governor S C Murmu has highlighted the "cash paradox" where currency in circulation continues to grow despite a significant increase in digital payments. This trend complicates the RBI's forecasting and planning for currency production and distribution, prompting the central bank to seek solutions and explore ways to extend banknote life and reduce the carbon footprint of the cash cycle.
IMF projected India's economic growth at 4.25% in 2013-14.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
'Healthy double-digit returns are still possible, though a sharp rally is unlikely.'
The country's chief statistician T C A Anant on Wednesday said high global crude prices could impact India's economic growth in 2011-12 and projected that the GDP is likely to grow by around 8.5 per cent during the fiscal.
The SBI report, however, said the economic growth rate will pick up pace in 2020-21 to 6.2 per cent.
Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said only farm revolution can make it possible. He also stressed on scrapping Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee and some old laws like Essential Commodites Act, which restrict movement of farm produces.
