The Economic Survey on Thursday projected the GDP growth in the range of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent in 2026-27, a tad lower than 7.4 per cent estimated in the current fiscal.
The Indian rupee depreciated by 52 paise to settle at 93.35 against the US dollar, driven by failed US-Iran peace talks, surging crude oil prices due to a potential US blockade of Iranian ports, and a global flight to the greenback. This geopolitical uncertainty is also leading to foreign capital withdrawal from domestic equities.
The Indian economy grew by 4.5 per cent in the October-December period of the current financial year, pulled down by poor performance of farm, manufacturing and mining sectors.
The PMEAC has revised economic growth rate upward to 7.1% for FY'12, up from 6.9% projected in advanced estimates.
A State Bank of India report indicates a sharp increase in precautionary cash holding in India, with the gap between per capita currency in circulation and ATM withdrawals widening significantly, driven by global uncertainties despite record digital payment transactions.
West Bengal Governor RN Ravi has called for collective efforts to restore the state's past glory, highlighting concerns over economic and educational indicators. His remarks coincided with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee criticising him for allegedly 'abusing' her instead of extending New Year greetings.
The key question is how much of the latest growth record represents recovery from the 2020-2021 downturn, and what is the sustainable growth rate now, asks T N Ninan.
India's new national accounts will leverage new data sources and surveys to enhance the measurement of the country's informal economy, and introduce double deflation methods across sectors, replacing the current system that relies on a single deflation mechanism in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations.
Sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals and automobiles can see supply disruptions in value chain, which may lead to a derailment of the domestic economic growth.
India's GST revenues experienced significant growth in March, reaching pre-tax cut levels, driven by increased imports and domestic sales. The report analyses the impact of tax rate changes and provides insights into future trends and economic stability.
India's real GDP growth will decline marginally to 6.3 per cent in 2024 from the 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023, an American brokerage firm said on Monday. The next calendar year will be of two halves, wherein the government spending before the upcoming General Elections will be the key driver for growth, while after the elections, it will be the re-acceleration in investment growth, especially from the private sector, Goldman Sachs said in a report. From a fiscal year perspective, the brokerage said it expects growth to accelerate to 6.5 per cent for FY25 from the 6.2 per cent it has projected for the ongoing FY24, it added.
India's GDP growth is likely to moderate from 8.2 per cent in 2023 to 7 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025 because the pent-up demand accumulated during Covid has exhausted, as the economy reconnects with its potential, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. About the global economy, the IMF said the battle against inflation has largely been won, even though price pressures persist in some countries.
India ranked 116th out of 147 countries in 2025 with an average score of 4.536.
Further, the agency said it expects signs of a pick-up to emerge in the second half of the year.
India's gross domestic product product (GDP) growth rate between 2011-12 and 2016-17 should be about 4.5 per cent instead of the official estimate of close to 7 per cent, he said in a research paper published at Harvard University. "The Indian policy automobile has been navigated with a faulty, possibly broken, speedometer," he says in the paper.
'At the first sign of real trouble, that money will move. There will be a run.'
Here are the key numbers to watch out for in the Union Budget for 2025-26:
India's services sector growth rose to a two-month high of 58.5 in January, on faster expansion in new business intake and output, prompting service providers to hire additional staff, a monthly survey said on Wednesday.
Economic think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research expects India's Gross Domestic Product growth to decelerate to 8.3 per cent during current fiscal
Moody's Investors Services on Tuesday gave a speculative grade rating to India's domestic-currency debt on account of the government's heavy borrowings, while doubting sustainability of nine per cent GDP growth.
India's urban areas are projected to contribute 70 per cent of gross domestic product in 2025-26, up from 45 per cent in the 1990s, according to a report by Dun & Bradstreet.
The SBI report, however, said the economic growth rate will pick up pace in 2020-21 to 6.2 per cent.
Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said only farm revolution can make it possible. He also stressed on scrapping Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee and some old laws like Essential Commodites Act, which restrict movement of farm produces.
With all-round upturn in economic cycle except in agriculture, Economic think tank NCAER has forecast India's GDP growth rate at 6.5 to 6.7 per cent for this fiscal.
IMF projected India's economic growth at 4.25% in 2013-14.
'My concern is that, although everything is expressed in monetary terms, you are effectively combining values that have been adjusted using different price measures.'
The country's chief statistician T C A Anant on Wednesday said high global crude prices could impact India's economic growth in 2011-12 and projected that the GDP is likely to grow by around 8.5 per cent during the fiscal.
India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) has projected the aggregate fiscal deficit of states to rise to 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026-27 (FY27), from an estimated 2.8 per cent in 2025-26 (FY26), citing higher revenue expenditure amid election-related pressures and scheme cost-sharing requirements.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday slashed India's GDP growth projection for FY23 to 7 per cent, saying the economy is expected to slow against the backdrop of global economy, elevated inflation and high interest rate. In June, it had forecast 7.8 per cent growth for India. "We expect the economy to slow given the global economic backdrop, elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy. "We now expect the economy to grow 7 per cent in the financial year to end-March 2023 (FY23) from 7.8 per cent previously, with FY24 also slowing to 6.7 per cent from 7.4 per cent before," Fitch said in its September edition of the Global Economic Outlook.
The Indian government has implemented several measures to mitigate external risks, support the balance of payments, and maintain macroeconomic stability amidst the ongoing West Asia crisis, according to Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday marginally lowered the country's GDP growth projection for the current fiscal at 6.8 per cent from its earlier estimate of 7 per cent. However, despite the downward revision in the economic growth projection, India will remain among the fastest growing major economies in the world, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das while announcing the latest bi-monthly monetary policy.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
There are vexing questions around the disconnect between Nifty returns and portfolio returns, between economic growth and earnings growth, and finally, between earnings growth and market returns, points out Debashis Basu.
Real GDP growth surprised on the upside in 2025, but weaker nominal growth, trade uncertainty, and soft demand signal a bumpier road ahead.
New Delhi will substantially reduce tariffs on industrial and agricultural goods while continuing to protect sensitive sectors. Tariffs on some agricultural products that are not traditionally considered sensitive will be brought down to zero, while in the case of relatively sensitive items, duties will be reduced in a graded manner and quotas will be imposed.
Benchmark lending rates unchanged with repo rate at 5.25%
India's high cost of capital due to relatively shallow corporate bond markets, limited institutional investor depth, sovereign risk premia, and regulatory restrictions on capital flows, is a constraint on private investment and long-run growth, the Economic Survey, authored by Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran, said.
'We believe the truth is in the middle, and that India is at an important crossroads.'
Let's take a look at GDP growth around the world, including India.
Highlights of the Economic Survey 2025-26
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